EURUSD on Friday rose 0.19% to 1.06932. Week ending 2023-02-17 rose 0.17%. Pair in consolidation. What you need to know.

EURUSD by TradingView

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	0.19%	20.7 Pips
Week 2023-02-17	0.17%	17.8 Pips
February	-1.56%	-169.4 Pips

Next week key events (London Time)

Mon 05:00 AM USD Presidents’ Day
Tue 08:30 AM EUR S&P Global/BME Composite PMI
Tue 08:30 AM EUR S&P Global/BME Manufacturing PMI
Tue 09:00 AM EUR S&P Global Composite PMI
Wed 07:00 AM EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)
Wed 07:00 PM USD FOMC Minutes
Thu 01:30 PM USD Gross Domestic Product Annualized

What happened over the week

📆 🇺🇸 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey in February below forecast and dropped to -24.3 points compared to previous figure -8.9 points in January. Source
📆 ☢️ 🇺🇸 USD Retail Sales Control Group in January exceed forecast and rose to 1.7% compared to previous figure -0.7% in December. Source
📆 ☢️ 🇺🇸 USD Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) in January exceed forecast and dropped to 5.6% compared to previous figure 5.7% in December. Source
📆 ☢️ 🇪🇺 EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) in Q4 preliminary estimate unchanged at 0.1% compared to previous report in Q3. The actual figure is also in line with the forecast. Source

What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

EURUSD on Friday rose 0.19% to 1.06932. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling but in oversold zone. For the week ending 2023-02-17, the pair rose 0.17% or 17.8 pips higher.

Looking ahead on Monday after previous session, EURUSD looks mixed as the pair is likely to consolidate above week low of 1.06110.

For the new week, our technical outlook is mixed. To see upside interest, we prefer to look at price breakout of last week high of 1.08044 or at least trades above Weekly Pivot level of 1.07029. On the downside, we are looking at last week low 1.06110 or 1.06013 (WS1) as immediate support level. EURUSD need to break on either side to indicate a short-term bias. A break above 1.08044 would suggest bullish bias after recent positive movement.

For the month of February, EURUSD is down by -1.56% or -169.4 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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Advanced Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services Source: Census Bureau
PPI for final demand advances 0.7% in January; goods rise 1.2%, services increase 0.4% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Publications
In January 2023, oil prices in euros were virtually stable, those for imported raw materials recovered Source: INSEE
In January 2023, the prices of frequently purchased goods sold in hyper and supermarkets rose by 13.5% year on year Source: INSEE
In January 2023, consumer prices increased by 0.4% over one month and by 6.0% year on year Source: INSEE
Fabio Panetta: Monetary policy after the energy shock Source: European Central Bank
New Residential Construction Source: Census Bureau
In Q4 2022, collective tourist attendance was 2.0% higher than its Q4 2019 level Source: INSEE
Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales Source: Census Bureau
Advanced Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services Source: Census Bureau
Industrial production down by 1.1% in the euro area and by 0.4% in the EU Source: Eurostat
Euro area international trade in goods deficit €8.8 bn Source: Eurostat
Construction of buildings indices, Civil engineering indices and miscellaneous indices for construction in December 2022 Source: INSEE
GDP up by 0.1% and employment up by 0.4% in the euro area Source: Eurostat
CPI for all items rises 0.5% in January as shelter increases Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Publications
In Q4 2022, the unemployment rate was virtually stable at 7.2% Source: INSEE

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