EURUSD on Friday dropped -0.48% to 1.05447. Week ending 2023-02-24 moved lower by -1.39%. Looking bearish. What you need to know.

EURUSD by TradingView

Performance
Period	Pct	Chg	Momentum
Friday	-0.48%	-51.3 Pips
Week 2023-02-24	-1.39%	-148.2 Pips
February	-2.93%	-317.9 Pips

Next week key events (London Time)

Mon 01:30 PM USD Durable Goods Orders
Mon 01:30 PM USD Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft
Wed 01:00 PM EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)
Wed 03:00 PM USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
Thu 10:00 AM EUR Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)
Thu 10:00 AM EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)
Fri 03:00 PM USD ISM Services PMI

What happened over the week

📆 🇺🇸 USD UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation in February unchanged at 2.9% compared to previous report in January. The actual figure is also in line with the forecast. Source
📆 🇺🇸 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February exceed forecast and rose to 67 points compared to previous figure 66.4 points in January. Source
USD Personal Spending in January rose to 1.8% compared to previous figure -0.1% (revised from -0.2%). Source
EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) in Q4 dropped to -0.4% compared to previous figure 0.5% (revised from -0.2%). Source
📆 🇩🇪 EUR Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey in March exceed forecast and improved to -30.5 points compared to previous figure -33.8, revised from -33.9 points in February. Source
📆 🇺🇸 USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) in Q4 preliminary estimate exceed forecast and rose to 4.3% compared to previous figure 3.9% in Q3. Source
📆 ☢️ 🇺🇸 USD Gross Domestic Product Annualized in Q4 preliminary estimate below forecast and dropped to 2.7% compared to previous figure 2.9% in Q3. Source
🇺🇸 📆 USD In the week ending 18 February, the Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 192K compared to previous figure 195K (revised from 194K). Source
📆 🇺🇸 USD Chicago Fed National Activity Index in January exceed forecast and rose to 0.23 points compared to previous figure -0.46, revised from -0.49 points in December. Source
📆 🇪🇺 EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) in January below forecast and improved to -0.2% compared to previous figure -0.4% in December. Source
EUR IFO – Business Climate in February rose to 91.1 points compared to previous figure 90.1 points (revised from 90.2 points). Source
📆 🇺🇸 USD S&P Global Composite PMI in February preliminary estimate exceed forecast and rose to 50.2 points compared to previous figure 46.8 points in January. Source
📆 🇺🇸 USD S&P Global Services PMI in February preliminary estimate exceed forecast and rose to 50.5 points compared to previous figure 46.8 points in January. Source
📆 🇩🇪 EUR ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment in February exceed forecast and rose to 28.1 points compared to previous figure 16.9 points in January. Source
📆 ☢️ 🇩🇪 EUR S&P Global/BME Manufacturing PMI in February preliminary estimate below forecast and dropped to 46.5 points compared to previous figure 47.3 points in January. Source
📆 🇪🇺 EUR Consumer Confidence in February preliminary estimate improved to -19 points compared to previous figure -20.9 points in January. Source

What can we expect from EURUSD for the new week and what happened on Friday?

EURUSD on Friday dropped -0.48% to 1.05447. Price is below 9-Day EMA while Stochastic is falling but in oversold zone. For the week ending 2023-02-24, the pair dropped -1.39% or -148.2 pips lower.

Looking ahead on Monday after previous session, EURUSD looks bearish as the pair posted lower in Friday trading session.

Our weekly technical outlook for EURUSD looks bearish, immediate support level is at 1.04849 (WS1) with break below could see further selling pressure towards 1.04252 (WS2). For potential buyers, as the current momentum is bearish, we prefer to look at firm break of the week high of 1.07046 as an important indicator of buying interest. Failure to break the resistance level would continue to echo bearish sentiment. A close below last week low of 1.05350 would indicate selling pressure.

For the month of February, EURUSD is down by -2.93% or -317.9 pips lower.

Weekly key levels to watch out:

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Index Suggests Economic Growth Picked Up in January Source: Chicago Fed
In February 2023, household confidence in the economic situation remains low Source: INSEE
Annual inflation down to 8.6% in the euro area Source: Eurostat
Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter and Year 2022 (Second Estimate) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
In Q4 2022, prices of second-hand dwellings decelerated significantly Source: INSEE
Decline in business births registered in January 2023 Source: INSEE
Inflation rate in January 2023 at +8.7% Source: Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis)
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 31–February 1, 2023 Source: Federal Reserve
In February 2023, the business climate in the building construction industry has deteriorated again Source: INSEE
In February 2023, the business climate in retail trade and in trade and repair of vehicles as a whole has slightly improved Source: INSEE
In February 2023, the business climate in manufacturing industry has slightly improved again Source: INSEE
In February 2023, the business climate in France has improved a little and the employment climate remains favourable Source: INSEE
In February 2023, the business climate has improved a bit again in services Source: INSEE
Production in construction down by 2.5% in the euro area and by 2.0% in the EU Source: Eurostat

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